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How Nigeria can prosper from its oil and gas riches

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How Nigeria can prosper from its oil and gas riches

Atampurge

Atampurge

“Forget the BRIC’s, the next decade is going to be about the MAVINs”

While researching this piece, we came across a 2010 article on Business Insider which spoke about how the focus on Brazil, Russia, India and China (The BRIC’S) might be old news and, in fact, the next decade was going to be about the likes of Mexico, Australia, Vietnam, Indonesia, Nigeria and South Africa.

As a financial services organisation positioning itself to be the leading Pan-African banking group on the continent, predictions like this are fascinating to review. While hindsight is a perfect science, looking at the expectations around Nigeria and South Africa – and then reviewing how their economies actually evolved over the last decade – is interesting.

South Africa has walked an unusual path. At points in time, it has been grouped with the “BRICs” cluster but never really enjoyed the same size economy as its more illustrious peers and in many ways has failed to capitalise on its potential and failed to address structural economic issues, inequality and growing unemployment.

Nigeria on the other hand is a well of untapped potential. With a population of approximately 202 million people, data out of the World Bank suggests that it accounts for more than half of the West African population, is Africa’s largest oil exporter, and has the largest gas resources on the continent.

Before a recession hit in 2016, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was growing at a healthy 6.3% per annum and inflation was in the single digits. The COVID-19 shocks of 2020 saw the oil price battered and this hit the Nigerian economy particularly hard.

Oil accounts for 80% of Nigerian exports, a third of banking sector credit, and half of government revenue. When the oil price collapsed, the impact was immediate for Nigeria and its population.

Fast-forward to 2021 and the recovery of the oil price at over $70 per barrel, the investment case for Nigeria brightens significantly. While people often talk about the size of the youth population in Africa, this potential is often missed. According to the United Nations (UN) 43% of the Nigerian population is under the age of 14 and 62% are below the age of 25.

This youthful population is driving a technology revolution which is catching attention of some heavy-hitters across the globe. In the last 12 months, US heavyweight Stripe invested $200m acquiring Lagos-based start-up Paystack while Flutterwave, a Nigerian fintech player closed a funding round for $170million, valuing the company at over $1billion.

The world is sitting up and taking notice of the potential in the country.

These developments are impressive and point to an economy which is diversifying – by the reality is that if Nigeria is going to deliver economic growth over the next decade, much of its fortunes are going to be tied to two key factors:

  • The oil and gas sector
  • A stable electricity supply

As the world has emerged from the COVID-19 lockdowns, the economic recovery in developed markets has surprised to the upside and demand for oil has been buoyant which has gone some way to repairing government finances. Government has realised the strategic importance of the sector and has continued to invest in the image of the sector and driving a corporate governance agenda to attract foreign investors.

One of the key concerns for investors in Nigeria will be the growth rate relative to inflationary pressures. According to Absa research, real Gross Domestics Product (GDP) is expected to rise by 2.1% in 2021 and 2.6% in 2022. At the same time, inflation is expected to be 16.9% for 2021 and 12.4% in 2022. Households are under significant pressure with a rising cost of living and higher electricity costs being a very real concern.

The second part of the equation is the access to stable electricity supply, which is a prerequisite for attracting foreign investment. Nigeria has embarked on the “Nigeria Electrification Project” which focuses on connecting households and small to medium-sized entities to the grid. A 5-year project valued at $765million dollars launched in 2018 and has secured World Bank funding to the value of $365million.

To match its current population growth, Nigeria is required to create over 5 million jobs per year as entrants enter the job market. This is a pool of untapped potential but it requires a deepening and broadening of its economic activities. With COVID-19 constraining government finances, much of this is going to rest on progressive economic policy.

Data suggests that COVID-19 push nearly 7 million Nigerians into poverty and nearly 40% of the population are now living below the poverty line. The positive performance of the oil price coupled with some exciting developments in the fintech sector could be catalysts for further inbound foreign investment.

As an intermediary facilitating economic activity, Absa looks forward to walking a journey with businesses involved in the Nigeria growth story and engaging with entrepreneurs that are keen to tap into this potential.

Camillo Atampugre, is the director, Resources and Energy, Absa Securities United Kingdom

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Opinion

NiMet’s Renewed Collaboration With Agriculture Ministry Is Good For The Nigerian Economy

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NiMet’s Renewed Collaboration With Agriculture Ministry Is Good For The Nigerian Economy

By Dr. Uche Nworah

The Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security is a Ministry of the Federal Government of Nigeria that has the mandate to ensure food security in crop, livestock and fisheries.

The ministry is also tasked to stimulate agricultural employment and services, promote the production and supply of raw materials to Agro- allied industries, provide markets for the products of the industrial sector, generate foreign exchange and aid rural socio-economic development throughout Nigeria.

The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), is a Federal Government of Nigeria agency charged with the responsibility to advise the Federal Government on all aspects of meteorology. NiMet is also tasked to project, prepare and interpret government policy in the field of meteorology; and to issue weather (and climate) forecasts for the safe operations of aircrafts, ocean going vessels and oil rigs.

The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet), and the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security have in the past made moves to strengthen their existing relationship towards improving agricultural production and food security in Nigeria. The Ministry and NiMet had signed an MoU on the 3rd of March, 2022, to collaborate in a lot of areas including development of a dash-board for early warning systems, capacity building for staff of the Ministry and other stakeholders on accessing and interpreting information on meteorological parameter changes, and the provision of agro-meteorological advisory services to farmers on specific agricultural commodities. It would seem as if things quietened down after the MoU was signed.

However, at a joint press briefing on NiMet’s 2024 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP), at the instance of the Honourable Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Senator Abubakar Kyari, on Tuesday, 16th April, 2024, the Honourable Minister and the Director General, Chief Executive Officer of NiMet, and Nigeria’s permanent representative with World Meteorological Organization (WMO), Professor Charles Anosike, resolved to strengthen the relationship and make it stronger. The Honourable Minister said at the press briefing; “Your presence here today, at our headquarters, marks another milestone in the deliberate and desirable collaboration and co-operation between our Ministry and your agency. Over the years, critical sectors of the economy, such as aviation, maritime, and agriculture, have come to rely on the Seasonal Climate Prediction published by NiMeT usually in the first quarter of the year. The reliability of the Seasonal Climate Prediction is indicated by increased recourse to the weather advisories contained therein”.

The Honourable Minister also said that NIMET’s Seasonal Climate Prediction can assist in shaping agriculture in Nigeria with regard to information about the pattern and duration of rainfall across the country’s agronomic zones, when to grow and length of growing season, as well as dry spells that could occasion loss of agricultural investment, where remedial measures are not taken. This in turn helps to boost the adaptive capacity of farmers. Regrettably, there have been farming seasons in Nigeria when farmers did not take advantage of the institutional advice from NIMET, and on their own misread the rainfall pattern, only to face dry spells that invariably ruined their crops and livelihoods.

In his remarks, Professor Anosike thanked the Honourable Minister for his leadership and the kind gesture to strengthen the relationship between NiMet and the ministry. “NiMet wishes to build on the database of farmers that the ministry has. Already NiMet disseminates information about seasonal climate prediction through formal engagements with farmers , and through the media such as the BBC, social media, Radio Nigeria and through national television stations.
However, a lot of gaps still exist within the dissemination space. Our goal is to reach as many Nigerians as possible with timely, accurate and actionable weather and climate information as part of NiMet Early Warning Drive”

Continuing, Professor Anosike said; “Food security requires consistent collaboration with all stakeholders. The SCP as predicted are being manifested but the challenge remains disseminating the contents to over 70 million farmers in Nigeria. Farmers need to be equipped with information and other resources to make climate resilient decisions”.

It is noteworthy and encouraging that weeks after the joint press briefing between the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security and NiMet, there are evidences of the renewed collaboration. This is positive and will benefit the Nigerian economy. Knowledge is power and if Nigerian farmers have weather and climate information translated in their local languages, they will be able to make climate resilient decisions such as knowing when to plant, what species of plants and seeds to plant and when to harvest to achieve greater yield.

The 2024 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP) released by NiMet provides an outlook of climate variables to help improve decision-making across all sectors of the economy. NiMet’s SCP for 2024 which was originally released in February 2024, forecasts normal on-set of rains over the northern states.Borno, Abia and Akwa Ibom states are predicted to have early on- sets. An early end to the season is predicted for parts of Yobe, Jigawa, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kano, Kaduna, Plateau, Nasarawa, Taraba, Gombe, Bauchi, Cross River, Ebonyi, Ogun and Lagos states.

A late secession is predicted over the southern states of Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Ondo, Ekiti and part of Edo, Delta, Ogun, Oyo, Kogi, Kwara, FCT, Niger and Kaduna states.
Day and Night time temperatures for January to May is predicted to be warmer than normal in most parts of the country. Also, most of the North is anticipated to be cooler in March.

The Ministry and NiMet have re-intensified efforts at disseminating NiMet’s seasonal climate prediction (SCP), using FRCN network service, local radio, local and national press, national and local television. They are also using social media platforms. Applying the multi-step information flow model will require social media savvy stakeholders picking up the information online and sharing same to the farmers in their various communities.

A critical aspect of the dissemination is the physical downscaling of the SCP information to farmers in the various communities. This will require the support of the various states ministries of agriculture and NGOs operating in the agricultural space. They should support current downscaling efforts by the ministry and NiMet. From the schedule released by the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, and NiMet, downscaling of SCP information to farmers in the six geopolitical zones have been scheduled as follows; Ondo (13th May), Imo (15th May), Delta (17th May), Niger (22nd May), Sokoto (4th June) and Borno (6th June). Farmers, civil society organizations, states ministries of agriculture, the media and other stakeholders can help in sensitizing the farmers to attend on the dates stated for their zones.

This initiative by the two MDAs is viewed as a positive step towards enhancing food security in Nigeria. It will empower our farmers, and has the capacity to mitigate the perennial challenges of climate variability. It will at the same time contribute towards sustainable resilience in the agricultural value chain.

The full SCP report can be downloaded from www.nimet.gov.ng. The report is also available from the Federal Ministry of Agriculture And Food Security Abuja, and State Ministries of Agriculture.

Dr. Nworah, a public affairs commentator wrote from Lagos.

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Opinion

America, Iran and the abuse of democracy, human rights, by Hassan Gimba

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America, Iran and the abuse of democracy, human rights, by Hassan Gimba

“One of the shrewdest ways for human predators to conquer their stronger victims is to convince them steadily with propaganda that they are still free.” N. A. Scott, American author.

Every human being currently living on earth came to this world and saw the United States of America posing as the cradle of democracy, a bastion of freedom and a citadel of human rights.

For those of us in Africa, especially West Africa, and particularly those along the coastline, that America ruptured family cohesion, ties and lineage by forcefully taking our able-bodied forefathers and enslaving them, was either forgotten, forgiven, or both.

That after it was forced to abolish slavery by a changing world, it found a way to continue enslaving our able-bodied and intelligent youths in the name of providing greener pastures for them, which was either overlooked, not realised, or both.

As time went on, that it labelled those who wanted the best for their people as communists and demonised them, creating a bipolar world was either accepted as gospel truth by those who did not know the truth or parroted by those who were recruited to do that, or both.

That the then Eastern bloc (or communist/socialist countries), under the guidance of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR), and its star boy, Fidel Castro of Cuba, all lined up to fight apartheid for African freedom was either lost on us or remained unappreciated, or both.

That Fidel Castro’s Cuba fought enslavers out of Angola for Angolans to taste freedom, training African youths in its universities and supplying Africa with medical doctors and free drugs while we still preferred to rush to America where we paid for everything through the nose reflected our slave mentality or lack of capacity to embrace truth, or both.

Truth is, we all grew up looking up to Uncle Sam as someone who cared for us in the third world, even when it was propping up the apartheid regime in South Africa or being a pillar of support to Ian Smith in Rhodesia, now Zimbabwe (Southern Rhodesia) and Zambia (Northern Rhodesia). Many of us did not see anything wrong in its support for Joshua Nkomo against the pan-Africanist Robert Mugabe.

For a long time, America has been working on the psyche of youths, especially in Africa, the Middle East, Asia and the communist/socialist countries to make them see their society as primitive and America as modern. The youths see their cultures and traditions as backward and archaic, their religion as stories of old, and Western depravity as the new religion.

It found a way in 1989 to infiltrate and brainwash Chinese students to rise against their country, demanding “political and economic reforms and greater respect for human rights”. The protesters gathered in Tiananmen Square in central Beijing, where they were forcefully evicted by military units, who killed a lot of them.

Tiananmen Square, or Tian’anmen Square, is a city square, measuring 765 x 282 metres, in the city centre of Beijing, meaning “Gate of Heavenly Peace”. The square contains the Monument to the People’s Heroes, the Great Hall of the People, the National Museum of China, and the Mausoleum of Mao Zedong, who proclaimed the founding of the People’s Republic of China in the square on October 1, 1949. It has great cultural significance in Chinese history.

America and its Western allies and propaganda machines did not allow what happened in China to be swept under the carpet or forgotten easily. It kept hammering on China’s “evil of repression”, that it emasculated and silenced the voice of the voiceless because that’s what students are. It told the world that China was an enemy of freedom, free speech, free association and democracy which it proclaimed as the only acceptable world order, despite its dalliance with repressive, autocratic and monarchic regimes, around the world.

Now fast-forward to 2024 and the pinching shoe is in America’s feet. Its students in no fewer than 15 universities and counting, with Columbia University in the lead, are protesting with the battle cry “Free, Free Palestine” for the freedom of Palestine that has been under Israel’s subjugation for decades.

America, the self-acclaimed doyen of freedom of association and speech, the guardian angel of democracy, is cracking down on the students for freely associating and using free speech to seek the freedom of another country. So far, scores of them have been arrested, some suspended, and some dismissed outright, while lecturers have been threatened with sack if they showed any sort of support to the students’ cause.

But that will hardly deter academics used to free speech as a first nature. One professor in the university bravely declared: “This is about a genocide being carried on with American money and with American weapons, against a people enduring generations of occupation.”

In a cheeky, and poignant, role reversal, Iran, which had suffered American instigation of its youths over time and had to deal with as it deemed fit, called on the US not to jeopardise democracy, freedom of association and free speech.

Shiraz University, a globally ranked university in Iran, just announced that it will grant scholarships to the students of American and European universities who have been expelled for supporting Palestine. It is also going to hire professors who have been fired or threatened with sacking for their stance towards Palestine.

Before the breeze blew and we saw the anus of the fowl, this was what America was doing to others all over the world – instigating youths against their fatherland, and when the country attempted to rein in its citizens, they would cry foul. They will then dole out scholarships, grants or work and Green Cards to those who fought against their country and its system.

In the words of Samuel P. Huntington, an American political scientist and academic, “The West won the world not by the superiority of its ideas or values or religion…but rather by its superiority in applying organised violence. Westerners often forget this fact; non-Westerners never do.”

Now America is receiving a dose of its medicine and it has failed to behave better than those countries it accused of truncating democracy, free association, free speech and human rights abuses.

Truth, it is said, is the only one that lasts. Falsehood and hypocrisy are just as temporary as the time it will take to blindfold the people.

What America is showing the world today is exactly the echo of the time immemorial words of Abraham Lincoln, its 16th president, who issued the Emancipation Proclamation that declared slaves forever free: “You can fool some of the people for all of the time, and all of the people for some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people for all of the time.”

Hassan Gimba is the Publisher and Editor-in-Chief of Neptune Prime.

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Opinion

IHATCH: JAPAN GOVERNMENT TASK TO LEVERAGE NIGERIA’S YOUTHFUL POPULATION- DG NITDA

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By James Ishaku

As part of the current administration of President Bola Tinubu’s commitment towards creating meaningful opportunities for Nigerian youths, the Director General Of the National Information Technology Development Agency (NITDA), Kashifu Inuwa CCIE has called on the government of Japan to leverage on the youthful population through strategic talent partnership that will nurture and build a workforce that can be exported.

The DG made the call at the Ihatch startup incubation programme 2nd cohort demo day and 3rd cohort opening ceremony organised by the subsidiary of the agency, Office for Nigerian Digital Innovation (ONDI), in partnership with Japan International Corporation Agency (JICA) in Abuja.

Inuwa noted that the ihatch 5-month free intensive incubation programme executed by the ONDI and hosted within the National Centre for Artificial Intelligence and Robotics (NCAIR) is designed to help Nigerian tech entrepreneurs refine their business ideas through a series of coaching, lectures, and booth camps to develop scalable and adaptable business models that willfocus on youth, innovation, entrepreneurship, and technology.

He added that the incubation programme will be held simultaneously in Abuja, Lagos, Port Harcourt, Gombe, and Kano and JICA has agreed to extend the Fourth Cohort across each of the 36 States and the FCT. This is to enable wider reach and to stimulate the startup ecosystems across the States.

The DG stated that not fewer than 1,218 applications were received for the Second Cohort and the number was pruned down to 8 startups, comprising 16 persons, a Founder and Co-Founder for each startup, after undergoing levels of rigorous selection process conducted by a panel of judges, comprising experts in diverse areas of technology and innovative entrepreneurship.
He explained that the selection process assessed the startups’ ideas based on the criteria of profitability, scalability, social impact, idea technique, competitive advantage, experience, and a clearly defined future roadmap.

Inuwa further revealed that a total of 11,183 applications were received from across the 6 geopolitical zones for the Third Cohort. This culminated in the selection of the top 8 startups, comprising 16 founders in total that will participate in the Third Cohort that was launched.

He added that 16 startups that participated in the first and second cohorts of the iHatch incubation programme have moved on to achieve remarkable success in the areas of job creation, funding, participation in events, and valuable partnerships which have created a combined total of 179 direct jobs in the span of agriculture, health, education, and e-commerce sectors.

The DG further asserted that apart from the total grant of US$45,000 (US$15,000 each) for Proof of Concept (POC) to the top 3 startups in the first cohort, some of the startups have raised some funding through other sources. Xolani Health (a health tech startup from the first cohort) secured a grant worth US$155,000, BetaLife (a health tech startup from the first cohort) secured an angel investment of US$60,000, Gifty (an e-commerce startup from the second cohort) got a grant of USD$8,000 while two other startups from the first and second cohorts respectively, raised a combined total grant of US$6,000.

Inuwa affirmed the agency’s commitment to working with relevant stakeholders and partners towards the successful implementation of the Nigeria Startup Act (NSA) which will accelerate innovation and provide much-needed jobs for our teeming youths. Leaving nothing to chance in our resolve to nurture the entrepreneurial spirit in our youth to catalyze the Nigerian digital economy to the next level.

The Honourable Minister, Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment, Doris Nkiruka Uzoka-Anite, represented by National Coordinator, National Talent Export Programme, Dr Femi Adeluyi, applauded NITDA for the various initiatives and programs put in place for the advancement of the tech ecosystem in the country.

Anite noted that the NITDA DG at the Digital Nigeria International Conference 2023 edition harped on the need for Nigeria to become the talent destination of the world where countries will come to seek a workforce that will work with them towards achieving their goals and objectives.

She added that “technology is a pivotal tool in all aspects of life which cannot be overemphasized and the green transition scoreboard global total has reached about $7.13 trillion for export and about $6.6 trillion for importation, the important aspect is that 54% of these activities is digitally edible and prepares people to be effective and efficient in the different sector of the economy is laudable”.

The Minister also appreciated JICA for its relentless efforts toward the advancement of the tech ecosystem in the area of automobile, development, training, scholarships, interventions and a lot more which has impacted the citizens directly or indirectly.

The Ambassador of Japan to Nigeria, Matsunaga Kazuyoshi, represented by Yuzurio Susumu Chief of Nigeria Office in his remarks stated that Nigeria is the most popular country in Africa and the heart hub of entrepreneurship activities aimed towards the advancement of the country.

He added, “With all the challenges faced by insecurity, and limited infrastructures in the country, Nigerian startups are demonstrating remarkable creativity and resilience in developing solutions that other critical social issues in areas such as education, transportation, healthcare and finance”.
He added that the present administration has identified the transformation potential of startups and digitization making it a key factor in diversifying the Nigerian economy from its dependence on oil.

The Ambassador pointed out that startups are seen as a catalyst for business transformation, bringing fresh ideas, innovative technologies and new employment opportunities. Japan has the longest history of technological innovation and entrepreneurship has a significant role in supporting the Nigerian system.
Among those who attended were representatives from both the private and public and the top three (3) startups emerged with cash prices to Fundus AI 1st postion $15,000.00, Reno 2nd postion with $12,000.00 and Ilim Tutors 3rd postion $10,000.00 respectively.

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