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Global Race To Net Zero By 2050 is Accelerating – Will Africa Realise a Just Transition or Become a Stranded Asset? PwC Africa Energy Review 2021
Global Race To Net Zero By 2050 is Accelerating – Will Africa Realise a Just Transition or Become a Stranded Asset? PwC Africa Energy Review 2021
Pwc
August24news.com
Sponsored by: H&H
With an acceleration of the global net-zero journey, there is increasing focus on developing countries and their lack of affordability to meet such net-zero targets. A clear contrast is evident when considering Africa; as home to 17% of the global population, producing less than 5% of global annual emissions and accounting for only 3% of global cumulative emissions.
Notwithstanding, the majority of Africa’s 54 countries (35) have made commitments towards net-zero emissions, but at an estimated cost of $2.8 trillion just to transition Africa’s current energy base by 2050, the required investment levels are largely unaffordable to most countries. This clear message has been given at COP-26 in Glasgow, through calls for increased international financial support from developed nations.
These are some of the key highlights from PwC’s Africa Energy Review 2021 released today.
With this background we assess Africa’s Energy landscape, what are the trends and patterns across fossil fuels and renewables. This review outlines a double challenge for Africa of energy transition as well as addressing energy poverty, in line with Sustainable Development Goals. What scenarios could play out in Africa’s energy transition and what is the risk of Africa being isolated from global markets and increasingly becoming “stranded”.
Pedro Omontuemhen PwC Africa Oil and Gas Industry Leader, says:
“The energy sector in Africa is diverse and characterised by different demands and needs in each country. While the energy journey for each country may be different, an overall perspective is needed on common issues in the bid to reduce the energy deficit on the continent. While the importance of global decarbonisation and a sustainable planet is foremost, the journey to achieve net zero is clearly highlighting the risk of further entrenching economic winners and losers.”
Africa: Energy snapshot
A snapshot of Africa’s fossil fuel inventories shows a downturn in production, consumption, and exports between 2019 – 2020. This is largely due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on large projects being delayed or cancelled, as well as global investment pressure resulting in the rapid exit of and disinvestment in portfolios.
Oil production significantly decreased by 19% to 6.8 mmbbl/d from the prior year. This accounts for 7.8% of global production. Consumption saw a decrease of 14% to 3.5 mmbbl/d from the prior year. Exports saw a drop to 5.7 mmbbl/d. Gas production experienced a slight decline of 5%, which amounted to 231 bcm, compared to the previous year. Gas consumption saw a slight decline of 1.5% relative to the previous year, amounting to 153bcm. Gas exports saw a decline of 6% to 26.1 bcm compared to the previous year.
Despite companies commencing exploration and development projects, planned capital expenditure in 2020–2021 fell from $90bn pre-COVID-19 to $60bn.
Renewable energy snapshot
Africa’s renewable energy sector in contrast shows an uptake in generation, capacity, and forecasts. Renewable energy is on the rise across the continent with an annual growth rate of 21% between 2010 and 2020 and current total renewable capacity of more than 58 GW (of which hydropower contributes 63%).
Wind energy generation increased by 14% and solar energy generation increased by 13%, while total renewable energy generation increased by 11% in 2020 compared to the previous year. Solar capacity increased by 13%, wind capacity increased by 11% and hydropower increased by more than 25% in 2020 compared to 2019. Most African countries are also increasing investment in solar and hydropower technologies with projects currently under construction estimated to add 33 GW of renewable energy capacity.
Total installed renewable energy capacity in Africa has grown by over 24 GW since 2013. The continent’s capacity is expected to increase again by the end of 2021 with growth led by solar and wind projects in Egypt, Algeria, Tunisia, Morocco, and Ethiopia. Forecasts to 2050 estimate 27.32 EJ of additional renewable generation is needed within Africa’s energy mix to compensate for declining fossil fuels, a significant increase from current renewable generation of just 1.79 EJ.
The challenges of a net-zero transition in Africa
To achieve net zero by 2050, Africa would need to invest an estimated $2.8tn in a clean energy mix and reduce its current annual CO2 emissions of 1.62m kilotons of CO2e.
Investment in low-carbon energy systems in Africa lags global pace, but despite global climate finance commitments from developed economies aimed at $100bn per annum, the allocation to Africa falls significantly short of what the continent requires to meet global targets. The fiscal constraints being experienced across Africa create a challenge for the continent to move with pace on its net-zero journey. Private partnerships, public-private partnerships (PPPs) and blended finance are becoming increasingly important and will need to be deployed together with strong public sector governance and innovative financing instruments to overcome these challenges.
James Mackay, PwC Director: Energy Strategy and Infrastructure, says:
“Ensuring a sustainable planet is not a cost-benefit assessment, that said: Africa must carefully consider the economic impact of a transition away from fossil fuels and associated revenues in context of the affordable pace of development and growth of the renewable energy sector. More than a third of African nations are very dependent on fossil fuel commodities for state revenue, foreign currency reserves and local economic activity. An unfunded and rapid shutdown of this sector would place significant fiscal strain and hardship on Africa. On the other hand, too slow a transition may see Africa lag global markets and emissions reductions targets. Developed economies must play an active role in Africa to ensure a global win-win outcome”
Economic benefits and opportunity costs of the energy transition
Africa’s proven fossil fuel reserves are estimated at more than $15.2tn based on current market value. In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) alone, nearly 50% of export value is derived from fossil fuels with an estimated annual contribution to GDP from Africa’s current oil, coal, and gas production of approximately $156.2bn. The global energy transition is, however, putting this crucial income source for the continent at risk.
To achieve the 1.5°C global warming target under the Paris Agreement, studies suggest that a third of current oil reserves, half the current natural gas reserves and nearly 90% of current coal reserves must remain in the ground. Applying this to Africa would leave a potential $6.7tn of fossil fuels stranded on the continent.
The adoption of renewable energy has the potential to boost employment opportunities on the continent with the creation of new skills and skills capacity. This employment creation is not limited to direct employment and of relevance to Africa is the potential boost in non-energy jobs through broader economic activity in rural communities where improved energy access through mini-grids and off-grid solutions will impact economic productivity. Overall, the energy transition in Africa has the potential to result in total renewable energy employment of around 5m jobs by 2030, which is a substantial increase from the estimate of 324,000 currently employed.
Future structure of the energy sector in Africa
Africa’s coal and oil energy production are expected to drop by around 96% and 71% respectively by 2050. This will be driven by declining demand for fossil fuels globally with leading international oil and gas companies already refocusing their portfolios to include higher renewables exposure. Renewable energy is expected to see large gains in Africa over the next three decades. By 2050, energy production from solar and wind is expected to increase by as much as 110 times and 40 times respectively.
Employment levels in the energy sector will depend greatly on the way the energy transition takes place. If Africa is pressured into rapidly transitioning to renewables and is assisted in this process through renewable energy funding, the transition of workers away from fossil fuel related jobs will be much faster. The potential loss of jobs, however, can be mitigated. It is forecast that jobs can be created rapidly in the renewable energy sector and this suggests that there is the potential for an overall gain in employment from a renewable energy transition.
Driving a measured transition: four potential scenarios
PwC has defined four potential scenarios that could materialise as Africa progresses the energy transition: (i) Assisted but rushed; (ii) Collaborative and measured; (iii) Business as usual; and (iv) Stranded and strangled.
All these scenarios are dependent on several factors including: the speed of global net-zero adoption; foreign funding available to Africa; and the level of Africa’s economic growth, which will include fossil fuel export revenue.
James Mackay comments:
“There is no doubt that the energy transition in Africa will be a complex journey with no single blueprint to solving Africa’s challenges. “Game Theory” outlines scenarios for decision making under uncertainty and how the outcome of individual participants depends on the actions of all. The global energy transition must prioritise the planet and all nations rather than identifying winners and losers.
“Africa will have no choice but to adapt to this new world, but to avoid a growing ‘fault line’ between the developed and the developing world, greater focus on equitable policy, markets and investment is clearly required.”
Pedro Omontuemhen concludes:
“Global climate change discussions at the COP26 conference promise to significantly raise these pressures and discussions with the hope that a combination of stronger foreign financial support, equitable policy and market allocations as well as firm commitment and planning from Africa will result in a favourable platform to support a sustainable Africa energy transition.”
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NNPC, NCDMB, NPA, Shell, NLNG, NCC, Zenith, Access Bank back Realnews 12th anniversary lecture
AJAGBE ADEYEMI TESLIM
SPONSORED BY: H&H
Some bluechip companies and organisations are supporting hosting the Realnews 12th Anniversary Lecture at the Sheraton Hotel on Tuesday, November 19, starting at 10 am.
The organisations include the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, NNPCL, the Nigerian Content Development Monitoring Board, NCDMB, the Nigerian Ports Authority, NPA, Shell Nigeria, the Nigerian Liquefied Natural Gas, NLNG, the Nigerian Communications Commission, NCC, Zenith, and Access Bank Plc.
Expressing Realnews’ appreciation to the organisations, Maureen Chigbo, its publisher, prayed to God to bless them and give their management the wisdom to lift their organisations to greater heights and prosperity.
Chigbo also expressed her deep appreciation to all the banks, institutions, companies, and other organisations that have placed online advertisements on the Realnews website in the last 12 years. “Without their support, we would not have remained in business all through the years to do what we love best – investigative journalism,”
The theme of Realnews 12th Anniversary Lecture is “Africa in World Shifting Geopolitics: Matters Arising on Democracy, Technology, Artificial Intelligence, Natural Resources”. The Lecture which will be chaired by Ms. Beatrice Eyong, Country Chair, UN Women, will be delivered by Ambassador Prof. Ibrahim Gambari, former Chief of Staff of former President Muhammadu Buhari. Dr. Karim El Aynaoui, Executive President of Policy Center for New South, Rabat, Morocco, will keynote the conference.
The lecture, which will be held at the Sheraton Hotel by 10 am will feature Mrs Hadiza Bala Usman as the Special Guest/discussant along with Engr. Shehu Tijjani, Managing Director, Amal Technology Ltd.
Chigbo, the publisher of Realnews, said there will be an investiture of all the speakers into The Realnews Hall of Fame immediately after the Lecture. Chigbo explained that the Realnews Hall of Fame was established to honour only those who played key roles during the anniversary lectures.
Realnews, a general interest magazine, is an online publication that thrives on investigative journalism. We have expertise in reporting the oil and gas sector with its attendant environmental challenges. We aim to unearth exclusive stories about real people and the challenges they face in their day-to-day activities. We do this bearing in mind that government can only act to influence the lives of people positively if they are aware of their true situation. Hence, our objective is to use our investigative skills to ferret out information in the sectors we focus on and produce an unbiased report that will influence the government and decision-makers to take actions that will make society better.
Realnews is populated by seasoned journalists who believe strongly in the tenets and ethics of the profession. The online publication believes that journalism as the fourth Estate of the Realm can contribute its quota towards building a fair and just society where fundamental human rights are respected and citizens have the freedom to pursue their interests anywhere in the world without hindrance. Its editors have a combined experience of several decades in active journalism practice and are highly dedicated to serving humanity. Hence its motto: “For God and Humanity.”
The Realnews Anniversary Lecture Series was established to commemorate our society’s best minds and tap into them to enrich the discourse on our national development.
The 11th Anniversary Lecture of Realnews was delivered by Edwin W. Harris Jr., Director General of the ECOWAS Inter-Governmental Action Group Against Money Laundering in West Africa (GIABA), Senegal, on the “Threats of Illicit Funds Flow to the African Economy”.
The 10th Anniversary lecture in 2022 on “Drug Abuse among Youths in Africa: Implication for Nigerian Economy and 2023 Elections” was delivered by Brig General Buba Marwa, Chairman, and Chief Executive Officer of the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency, NDLEA; 9th Anniversary Lecture of Realnews in 2021 was delivered by Engr. Simbi Kesiye Wabote, Executive Secretary of the Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board on “Nigeria in the Unfolding Integration of the African Market: The Oil and Gas Perspective”; 2020 Eighth Anniversary Lecture of Realnews was delivered by Boss Mustapha, Secretary to the Government of the Federation and Chairman of the Presidential Taskforce on COVID-19 on Managing COVID-19 Pandemic in Africa: The Nigeria Experience; Former President John Dramani Mahama of Ghana gave the 2019 Lecture on Beyond Politics: An Economic Narrative for West Africa while Prof. Mahmood Yakubu spoke on Political Transitions and Africa’s Economic Development: Preparations for Nigeria’s 2019 General Elections at the 2018 Lecture. The 2017 Fifth Anniversary Lecture on African Leadership in a Turbulent Era was delivered by Dr. Oby Ezekwesili, former minister of Education and former World Bank Vice President. The 2016 Fourth Anniversary Lecture on Security and National Development in Plural Democratic Society was delivered by Dr. Mohamed Ibn Chambas, former United Nations Secretary General’s Special Representative to West Africa and Sahel; the 2015 Realnews Third Anniversary Lecture was delivered by Professor Chukwuma Charles Soludo, former Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on November 19, 2015, under the theme: It’s The Nigerian Economy, Stupid? The Second Realnews Anniversary Lecture on Nigerian Democracy: Getting it Right in 2014 was delivered by Professor Maurice Iwu, former Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
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No directive for workers to change salary accounts — FG
No directive for workers to change salary accounts — FG
AJAGBE ADEYEMI TESLIM
SPONSORED BY: H&H
The Office of the Accountant General of the Federation has clarified that no instruction has been issued for federal workers to switch the financial institutions linked to their Integrated Personnel and Payroll Information System salary accounts.
According to a statement released by Bawa Mokwa, Director of Press and Public Relations, on Monday, the OAGF assured employees that IPPIS prioritises their welfare and would not implement any measure likely to cause confusion or undue alarm.
The clarification follows concerns over potential directives that could require employees to change their bank accounts for salary payments, as some banks undergo system upgrades.
The OAGF stressed that any request to change salary accounts remains a personal decision for each worker and that the IPPIS Office has not issued any general order to this effect, as there is no justification for such a directive.
The OAGF also urged financial institutions to enhance customer confidence by ensuring consistent and reliable service delivery to individuals who have opted to domicile their salaries with them.
It highlighted the role of designated agencies in assessing the health and stability of financial institutions and expressed confidence in these agencies’ capacity to fulfil their duties.
The statement read, “The OAGF explained that any application for a change of salary account is always a personal decision of the worker concerned, adding that the IPPIS Office has not issued any general directive to this effect as there was no reason to do so.
“The OAGF tasked financial institutions to implement necessary strategies to boost customer confidence and guarantee efficient fulfilment of their obligations to persons whose salaries are domiciled in such financial institutions, as well as to Nigerians in general.
“The OAGF noted that there are agencies statutorily mandated to determine the health and viability of financial institutions and expressed optimism that these agencies are up to the task.”
Employees with legitimate reasons to update their salary accounts on the IPPIS platform were advised to adhere strictly to official procedures for such changes.
Culled from Punch
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Hamzat, Abiru To Speak on Impactful Empowerment For Nigerians At TheGazelleNews Annual Public Lecture
Hamzat, Abiru To Speak on Impactful Empowerment For Nigerians At TheGazelleNews Annual Public Lecture
AJAGBE ADEYEMI TESLIM
SPONSORED BY: H&H
TheGazelleNews, a leading online newspaper, is set to host its much-anticipated annual public lecture on Thursday, December 5, 2024, at the Radisson Blu Hotel, Isaac John Street, GRA, Ikeja, Lagos.
This year’s lecture will focus on a topic of crucial national importance: “Poverty Alleviation: Fantasies, Expectations, and Realities of People’s Empowerment.”
The event will convene distinguished speakers, thought leaders, and government officials to address the challenges and practical solutions surrounding poverty reduction and empowerment in Nigeria.
It will feature Dr. Kadri Obafemi Hamzat, Deputy Governor of Lagos State, as the Guest Speaker, who is expected to bring a wealth of experience in governance and infrastructure development to the discourse. As the Keynote Speaker, Senator Mukhail Adetokunbo Abiru, a renowned legislator and financial expert, will share valuable insights into policy-driven approaches for sustainable poverty alleviation.
A dynamic panel discussion will follow, featuring prominent personalities: Engineer (Dr.) Adekunle Olayinka, FNSE – Special Adviser on Works to the Lagos State Government; Ms. Abisola Olusanya – Commissioner for Agriculture and Food Systems, Lagos State, who will provide perspectives on the agricultural sector’s role in empowering communities; Comrade Tosin Adeyanju – Executive Secretary of the National Lottery Trust Fund (NLTF), focusing on community development through structured funding and Honorable Rasaq Ajala – Executive Chairman, Odi-Olowo/Ojuwoye LCDA, who will be contributing insights on local government initiatives.
Goodwill messages will be delivered by: the Senate Leader, Senator Micheal Opeyemi Bamidele; the Chairman of the Senate Committee on Environment, Senator Yunus Abiodun Akintunde; the Chairman of Winners Golden Group, Honourable Idowu Osuolale Obasa; and the Special Adviser to the President on Public Communications and National Orientation, Chief Sunday Dare.
The event will be graced by prominent personalities in government and public service, with Nigeria First Lady, Senator Oluremi Tinubu, CON, serving as the Special Guest of Honour; Senate President, Senator Godswill Akpabio as the Chairman of the occasion and the Lagos State Governor, Mr. Babajide Olusola Sanwo-Olu, will be the Chief Host.
The Father of the Day is seasoned politician noted for his connection with the people especially at the grassroots level, Senator Ganiyu Olanrewaju Solomon (GOS), and Mother of the Day, Her Excellency Princess Adejoke Orelope-Adefulire, reflecting her longstanding commitment to social empowerment and women’s issues and of course her role as the Senior Special Assistant to the President on Sustainable Development Goals.
In a celebration of excellence and dedication to public service, TheGazelleNews will present its prestigious Lifetime Achievement Award to Prince Tajudeen Oluyole Olusi, Chairman of the Lagos State Governance Advisory Council (GAC).
A highly respected political figure and royal prince from the Akinsemoyin ruling house of Lagos, Prince Olusi has made impactful contributions as a former Lagos City Councilor, House of Representatives member in the Second Republic, and Commissioner in Lagos State. His award highlights a career marked by unwavering dedication to Lagos and its citizens.
The day’s proceedings will be hosted by the dynamic compère duo, Gbenga Adeyinka and Feyikemi Niyi-Olayinka, who promise to guide the audience through an engaging and memorable event.
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