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How 2019 Elections Will Shape Southwest Polls

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The premier newspaper in this report reviews some of the major political events that took place in the Southwest in 2018 and how they may affect the 2019 general elections

The year 2018 will certainly go down in the political history of the South West as eventful, for recording some very phenomenal developments that may shape the 2019 elections in the zone.

From Lagos to Ogun, Ekiti to Osun, Oyo and Ondo, major political actors in a bid to maneuver their opponents and remain relevant caused major upsets in the political space especially during the primaries of the ruling party, the All Progressives Congress, APC. The conundrum that trailed some of the primaries across most of the parties is yet to settle.

Specifically, the Peace and Reconciliation Committee set up by the APC to address concerns and grievance of those who lost out in the party’s primaries held between September 29 and October 6 has so far been unable to persuade aggrieved members to sheathe their swords. This means that the APC in the South West may be going into the 2019 election with a divided house.

Lagos State

Lagos State recorded a major upset in the political turf with the dropping of Governor Akinwunmi Ambode from proceeding with his second term ambition in 2019 by the state leadership of the All Progressives Congress (APC).

This was said to be despite interventions by President Muhammadu Buhari’s proxies and governors aimed at staving off what they claimed was a damaging crisis in one of the party’s strongest bases.

Political observers say Ambode lost out not because he was not performing but simply because he fell out with party leaders across the state, and was therefore tagged “not a party man”.

In his place, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, a former Special Adviser, commissioner and immediate past chief executive officer of the largest public corporation in the Centre of Excellence, the Lagos State Property development Corporation, was favoured with the governorship ticket of the party.

Mr Ambode will thus go down in the history of the state as the first governor to do one term in the current dispensation.

A similar fate befell Senator Gbenga Ashafa, Lagos East ostensibly for being at Ambode’s earlier declaration.

Some watchers of Lagos politics say there may be upset at the election, given the array of contenders from the other political parties whose profiles and personal achievements are intimidating, but unfortunately, the gubernatorial candidates have rather than base their campaigns on issues, have continued to pursue the mundane, focusing on Tinubu’s stranglehold on Lagos..

Unlike in 2015 governorship election where Tinubu’s candidate, Mr Akinwunmi Ambode had only the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Mr Jimi Agbaje to contend with, this time Mr Sanwo-Olu and the APC will have Mr Babatunde Gbadamosi of the Action Democratic Party, ADP; Chief Owolabi Salis of the Alliance for Democracy, AD; Mr Jimi Agbaje again and few others to contend with.

A source close to Ambode’s camp said, “It is sad though. End of one-man’s rule may finally be here. There is enormous interest in what those disaffected with Lagos APC primaries will do. It will significantly affect presidential and governorship elections results in Lagos. If they all act their conscience and hidden agenda, then an earthquake will happen in Lagos.

“It is the era of the revolution to free Lagos now. Tinubu may have installed the last governor in open elections.”

In August, the gruesome murder of the chairman of the PDP in Apapa Local government created viral ripples which had yet to settle in the party. One of the outcomes of the aftermath of the murder was the defection of the erstwhile state chairman of the party to the APC, alongside his supporters.

 

Ekiti State

Ekiti state experienced a major upset in the July governorship election with the immediate past governor of the state, Mr Ayodele Fayose, of the PDP being the biggest casualty. His political son and deputy, Prof. Kolapo Olusola and flag bearer of the PDP in the election reportedly lost Irepodun/Local Government Area, where Mr Fayose hails from to Mr Kayode Fayemi of the APC whom Fayose beat in 2014 with the infamous 16-0 defeat.

The battle has since shifted to the Election Petition Tribunal as Prof. Olusola headed to the tribunal to challenge Fayemi’s victory which was allegedly manipulated by the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC and security operatives.

The two senators and five House of Representatives members still with Fayose lost in their local government areas just as the senator representing Ekiti South, Senate Deputy Minority Leader, Mrs. Biodun Olujimi, lost her Ekiti East Local Government to the APC.

House of Representatives members in Ekiti South, Akin Awodumila and Segun Adekola lost in Gbonyin and Ekiti South-West where they hail from in the same manner Senator Duro Faseyi (Ekiti North) lost his Ilejemeje Local Government to APC. Two other House of Representatives members, Thaddeus Aina and Kehinde Agboola, lost in in Ido/Osi and Ikole council areas.

Another big casualty was the Speaker of the House of Assembly Mr. Kola Oluwawole, who lost his Moba Local Government Area to APC, alongside the lawmaker for Moba 2, Mr. Badejo Anifowose.

Several commissioners and local government chairmen could not deliver their council areas in the APC hurricane that has confounded political pundits.

For the PDP, it is believed that the outgoing ruling party suffered some internal sabotage from senior members, who did not believe in Olusola’s candidacy.

The APC’s victory was largely attributed to the success of the post-primary reconciliation. Nobody defected. All the party’s leading lights were on the same page, unlike in the PDP where some key members, including former Minister of Works, Prince Adedayo Adeyeye, defected to the APC.

 

Osun State

The Osun State governorship election also produced some upsets following the victory of Gboyega Oyetola, the candidate of the APC winner of the 2018 election.

Mr Oyetola was returned as governor-elect at the end of a supplementary election which held in seven polling units across four local governments. INEC had scheduled the rerun after declaring the earlier election inconclusive; saying the margin of votes with which the leading candidate, Senator Ademola Adeleke of the PDP polled was less than the number of cancelled votes in the seven polling units.

The APC candidate won six of the seven units amidst allegations of harassment and other forms malpractice. At the end of the tally of votes, the APC candidate scored a total of 255,505 votes while the PDP candidate scored a total of 255,023 votes.

Despite the irregularities reported by journalists and observers, INEC officials at the collation centre all said the election went on smoothly.

But one major upset in the election was the support of the Social Democratic Part, SDP, candidate in the election, Senator Iyiola Omisore who became a beautiful bride to be courted by the PDP and the APC and against all expectations; Omisore pitched his tent with the APC, a development which gave the party its victory.

Similarly, the crisis that trailed the APC primaries in the state is yet to settle as some leaders of the party that defected to the Action Democratic Party (ADP) had not returned a situation that could undermine the victory of APC in the state if the party leadership failed to bring them back before the 2019 general election.

Pundits say the ADP governorship candidate in Osun, Alhaji Moshood Adeoti “is still influential. Yet, Adeoti is not happy with the way he was forced out of the APC before the 2018 governorship contest in the state. The APC may lose some legislative seats if the case of Adeoti is not attended to.”

 

Oyo State

Oyo State was not insulated from major upsets arising from the APC primaries. Like other aspirants that contested different primaries, the Minister for Communications, Mr. Shittu Adebayo, vowed not to support the APC governorship candidate in the state, Chief Adebayo Adelabu.

Mr Adebayo’s reason is that Adelabu is a stooge of the APC National Leader, Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu.

The minister threatened that there would be no peace in the ruling APC, especially in Oyo State chapter without restitution and justice due to what he ascribed to injustice and unfairness that characterised the APC primaries in the state.

“So, restitution should come before the reconciliation. With this injustice, I will be a bastard to support the APC candidate in Oyo State in the next governorship election after I was defrauded out of the party’s primary election held last October.”

 

Ogun State

The refusal of the National Chairman of the APC, Adams Oshiomhole, to accept Governor Ibikunle Amosun’s preferred choice of governorship candidate in Ogun State has worsened the crisis rocking the party in the state.

The state executive of the party insisted it would only recognize Adekunle Akinlade as the APC’s governorship candidate and vowed not to work for its governorship candidate, Dapo Abiodun, in 2019 except President Muhammadu Buhari directed otherwise.

Despite all efforts by the Presidential Reconciliation Committee led by Sandra Oladele to settle all aggrieved parties including Governor Amosun, the latter have threatened to work against the APC during the 2019 general election.

Already, Amosun’s allies, who lost out in the party’s primaries, had defected to the Allied Peoples’ Movement, APM, to pursue their political aspirations.

Prominent among Amosun’s allies that defected were Hon. Adekunle Akinlade, who in vain sought the Ogun APC governorship nomination; Hon. Mukaila Kazeem, who was seeking a return ticket to the Abeokuta North/Obafemi-Owode-Odeda federal constituency seat and Chief Tolu Odebiyi, who resigned from the APC after losing the Ogun West senatorial ticket.

Observers argue that these defections may negatively affect the ruling party in the state in the 2019 elections.

On the other hand, gladiators in the Ogun State governorship contest on the PDP platform are yet to sheathe their sword. The national leadership of the party, recently, in Abuja, presented Ladi Adebutu with the symbolic party flag, as its Ogun State governorship candidate.

National chairman of the party, Prince Uche Secondus, said the party had submitted Adebutu’s name to INEC as required by law, adding that by the presentation, Adebutu is the authentic governorship candidate of the party for Ogun State.

But in a swift reaction, Senator Buruji Kashamu, who was recently recognised by INEC as the party’s governorship candidate in the state based on the ruling by a Federal High Court, said that Secondus should be held responsible “for breach of public peace and safety should there be a breakdown of law and order in Ogun State” in the build up to the 2019 general election.

”The desperation shown by Secondus is only typical of a mercenary who is hell-bent on delivering on the job he has been paid to do. His latest action was done in utter disregard to the party’s constitution and subsisting judgment of courts – from the High Court to the Supreme Court – which the INEC has since complied with.

“What is more, even if PDP presents 10,000 flags to Adebutu, it does not change the fact that the courts have pronounced the Engr. Adebayo Dayo-led Ogun State PDP Exco as the only party structure recognized by the law in Ogun State. It is merely ceremonial. It does not change the lists of candidates accepted, processed and published by INEC. It cannot change the verdicts of the High Court, the Court of Appeal and the Supreme Court.  It cannot also change the wide acceptance of our aspiration by the good people of Ogun State and beyond.”

Political watchers in Ogun State say this state of affairs may likely cost the PDP the state.

 

Ondo State

Although, the governorship election will not be taking place in 2019, the governor, Mr. Rotimi Akeredolu, is being accused of unjust treatment and unfair play during the party primaries in the state.

20 lawmakers of the State House of Assembly, who were denied return tickets, accused the NWC of highhandedness and imposition, claiming that only six lawmakers were offered return tickets.

They claimed that Akeredolu denied them return tickets after the APC National Working Committee, NWC, had agreed to reward all the senators and federal lawmakers that supported President Buhari during the face-off with the National Assembly.

It was gathered that Akeredolu worked against the senator representing Ondo North Senatorial District, Prof. Ajayi Boroffice and his counterpart in Ondo South Senatorial District, Senator Omoyele Omogunwa. It took the intervention of the presidency before they could secure their return tickets.

At the moment, Akeredolu’s allies and aides are said to have defected to the Action Alliance, AA, to pursue their political aspiration. Dr. Tunji Abayomi, who was a senatorial aspirant in Ondo North, defected to the AA just after the primaries. Among others, Mr. Lucky Ayedatiwa, another senatorial aspirant in Ondo South, also defected.

Akeredolu had also vowed “not to support all the aspirants imposed on the Ondo APC in the contest for the national and state assemblies.

From the state of affairs in the affected states, observers say the peace committee might not be able to address diverse issues of injustice and unfair treatment, which most aggrieved aspirants alleged, characterised the APC primaries conducted and this may cause major upsets in the 2019 elections in the South West.

These major events will one way or the other shape the 2019 elections and the Southwest may never remain the same again.

 

 

Opinion

Let’s Save Our Democracy from this Axis Of Evil, by Hassan Gimba

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Let’s Save Our Democracy from this Axis Of Evil, by Hassan Gimba

Several people, including Nigerian leaders, have said that democracy, as a form of government, has no better alternative. And why not, if democracy is all about a system of government in which the governed freely participate in electing their representatives?

Nigeria has had a go at practising democracy even before its independence from Britain. From independence, we practised it fully for six years, though it was the Westminster system, bequeathed to us by the colonisers. It got its name from the central London area hosting the Parliament of the United Kingdom.

The Westminster model, which Nigeria started with, is a system in which there is a head of state (or president), a prime minister who heads the government, and an elected parliament (made up of one or two houses) from which the head of government emerges.

Then, there was a thirteen-year military interregnum, during which the men in khaki and jackboots ran the country’s affairs by decree and instituting a unitary form of government, the top-to-bottom command structure they knew all too well.

Fully aware that democracy is more in tandem with human nature, the Khaki Boys organised a constitutional conference in 1979 to usher in a democratic government, opting for a presidential system fashioned after the American model.

However, it did not last as long as the parliamentary system because, four years later, the jackboots returned. It was only 15 years later, in 1999, that the starched khaki-wearing leaders freed Nigeria from their grasp after seeing that stratocracy was globally going out of fashion.

In all of our adventurism with the forms of democracy, it is only in the current dispensation that one sees politicians holding the reins of their party’s leadership, yet sabotaging it.

In the First Republic, for instance, Obafemi Awolowo was the chairman of the Action Congress (AG), while Anthony Enahoro, and later Bola Ige, were its secretaries-general. The National Council of Nigeria and the Cameroons (NCNC) had Herbert Macaulay and Nnamdi Azikiwe as chairman and secretary-general, respectively.

The Second Republic’s National Party of Nigeria (NPN) had Augustus Akinloye as its chairman, and the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) had Alhaji Falalu Bello. In this dispensation, we have had the All Progressives Congress (APC) with Bisi Akande and Tijjani Musa Tumsah as chairman and secretary-general, respectively.

Despite the average man’s inordinate desire for worldly gains, these chairmen of the opposition political parties never took part in any subterfuge against their parties. History will surely be kind to them as those who endured being in opposition for the sake of democracy and integrity.

There is no integrity where a citizen is playing politics for his stomach. It becomes worse when he willingly sells himself to the devil so that he can own mansions, choice plots, and hefty bank accounts in various currencies. These are the sorts of people that history consigns to the dirty bin it keeps for villains and the immoral.

We may not sound the alarm over the heinous acts of the unprincipled and “long-throat” politicians if not for their desperate—and, from all indications, succeeding—shenanigans involving the judiciary that could jeopardise our democracy.

They are bent on making a mockery of the judiciary, compromising those they can compromise and shopping for favourable judgements from “understanding” or “sympathetic” judges.

As a result of this unholy romance between a triumvirate of monied politicians (whose source of wealth can lead to capital punishment in a sane country), the perfidious, unscrupulous party chieftains, and mercenary judges, Nigeria’s democracy is at risk from this “axis of evil!”

This repugnant alliance, apart from casting the courts in a bad light, is threatening to give them a role never envisaged for them by the framers of our constitution—a power superseding even that of the constitution. Now, courts are managers of political parties, telling them when to meet, who their leaders should be, who their members should be, etc. This is why those who defected from their party—whom the constitution says cease to be party members—remain in their seats courtesy of the courts. Some judgements even turn established precedents and Supreme Court rulings on their heads.

Many lawyers, too, have become willing tools in the hands of the “axis of evil,” as they have no qualms defending the indefensible under the cover of the Constitution, which deems one innocent until proven otherwise. Ordinarily, they know, we know, and everyone knows that the culprits are guilty as charged.

The law must be applied common-sensibly. As the late Gani Fawehinmi, SAN, would say, legality should be guided by morality. Any law or court that sides with the wrongdoer is not helping the country.

This is why law and order are breaking down because the criminal-minded know that even if arrested, they can meander their way out as there are clever lawyers ready to take their rotten briefs for the money and judges who would set them free for a pot of porridge. The rotten lawyers know the houses and haunts of the rotten judges… birds of a feather, they say, flock together.

Is it any wonder that the wicked no longer fear the law or the authority doling it out, or that the innocent citizen fears the outlaw more than the custodian of the law? For one, the lawbreaker knows his atrocities might go unpunished, while the law-abiding fears the law cannot protect him since he may not be able to afford it.

This is why, among many others, the sit-at-home agenda of separatists in the Southeast will continue to be obeyed.

But like almost everything, there must be a way out. Oh, sure, there must be.

The Judicial Service Commission must intervene. They must remove the rug from under the feet of renegade judges who have become turncoats. The Legal Practitioners Disciplinary Committee (LPDC) must start punishing lawyers who engage in forum shopping and other ethical breaches.

But before that, the Nigerian Law School must incorporate subjects into its curriculum to teach the importance of morality and loyalty to the Constitution and the nation.

Then the judiciary must truly be independent in all ramifications; therefore, houses, cars, and any other welfare should not be doled out to its members by the executive. These are not favours and should not be made to be so or to look like one.

Hassan Gimba, anipr, is the publisher and CEO of Neptune Prime.

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Opinion

UN in Nigeria: Charting a Path Towards a Brighter Future, By Mohamed Malick Fall

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UN in Nigeria: Charting a Path Towards a Brighter Future, By Mohamed Malick Fall

The indescribable destruction caused by the first and second world wars led many to desire an international organization dedicated to maintaining world peace.

The United Nations (UN) was therefore established on 24 October 1945, to maintain international peace and security and to achieve cooperation among nations on economic, social, and humanitarian challenges.

As we commemorate the ‘birth’ of the UN, we are reminded of its enduring legacy in promoting peace, development, and humanitarian relief across the globe.

The creation of the UN, nearly eight decades ago was a pivotal moment in international history – anchored in the vision of a world united to prevent conflict, protect human rights, and ensure dignity for all.

The values enshrined in the UN Charter resonate strongly in Nigeria, a nation that joined the UN on 7 October 1960, just days after gaining its independence.

Some will argue that the need for the UN has never been greater than it is today, at a time when multilateralism and interstate collaboration is under threat in an increasingly divided world. Not only is the spectre of conflict rearing its ugly head, but pandemics have also killed millions of people in the last few years.

Most importantly, humankind is facing an existential challenge through climate change. If we are to survive, we will need to put our own interest aside for that of humanity and common survival.

The UN’s engagement with Nigeria has been deep and transformative, spanning development initiatives, and humanitarian responses to the challenges faced by vulnerable people. Through decades of partnership, the UN has played a central role in support of the Government of Nigeria, positively impacting the lives of millions through its wide-ranging interventions.

First, humanity is at the heart of the UN’s work in Nigeria. Across Nigeria, each region faces distinct humanitarian challenges. The UN, through its agencies, in collaboration with local and international partners, with the Nigerian Government taking the lead, has acted as a beacon of hope for those in crisis. Interventions have ranged from providing life-saving food and medical supplies, to addressing the long-term needs of displaced people, including education, and psychosocial care.

The UN supports resilience building, agricultural recovery, food security, and livelihoods in affected communities, as well as reproductive health and protection services against gender-based violence. Furthermore, the UN aids displaced people and refugees, providing shelter and basic needs, while also supporting child protection, education, health, and nutrition programmes.

In Borno, Adamawa, and Yobe states, where conflict and displacement have left millions vulnerable, UN-coordinated humanitarian responses have been crucial. Over the past decade, at least five million people have received aid annually, courtesy of the UN and partners, ensuring their access to food, water, healthcare, and protection services.

Beyond emergency responses, the UN has continued to support Nigeria’s development. It has been pivotal in fostering sustainable development through a focus on capacity building, governance reform, and the empowerment of women and youth. Over the years, the UN has supported numerous educational and vocational programmes that have enabled thousands of Nigerians to rise above poverty and build better futures for themselves and their families.

More so, the UN has supported the implementation of projects aimed at enhancing the resilience of communities. Initiatives in agriculture, renewable energy, and economic diversification have been particularly impactful in promoting food security and mitigating the effects of climate change. Similarly, its support for the fight against gender-based violence and human trafficking is helping protect vulnerable people and upholding human rights.

Despite these successes, the road has not been without challenges.

Conflict, displacement, food insecurity, malnutrition, natural disasters, and climate change impacts remain significant hurdles in Nigeria’s path to sustainable development.

The humanitarian crisis in the north-east persists, with violence continuing to disrupt lives and livelihoods. The northwest struggles with escalating banditry and communal clashes, displacing thousands.

The north-central region faces recurrent farmer-herder conflicts, threatening food security and livelihoods. The south-west grapples with violence and kidnapping, posing risks to safety. The south-south is grappling with environmental degradation affecting both livelihoods and ecosystems. In the south-east, rising insecurity has disrupted local economies and essential services, intensifying the humanitarian needs of affected communities.

Moreover, rising inflation and the global economic downturn have compounded the struggles faced by Nigeria’s most vulnerable people.

As we celebrate the UN’s impact in Nigeria, let us remember that the journey continues.

Let all hands be on deck!

Mohamed Malick Fall is the UN Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Nigeria.

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Opinion

Remembering Iyalode of Yorubaland

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Remembering Iyalode of Yorubaland

By Dimeji Kayode-Adedeji

Precisely 365 days today at about 6. 45am, a telephone call I first received came from the home of Alaba Oluwaseun Lawson. My heart skipped…and listening to the voice from other end of the phone, It was sad news… Mama has gone to the Lord.

Honestly, I was immediately confused and still on my Jalamia, (Pyjamas) I drove straight to her private residence at Quarry Road in Abeokuta. Reality dawned on me on arrival and I couldn’t hold back tears which rolled down my face and I became speechless.

It was a Saturday I used to appear on live radio program on fresh F.M between 9-11am. When I regained my consciousness, I put a call across to management of the station, that I can’t make it because I was bereaved. As I was still trying to comport myself and further regain my strength as a man, there were torrential phone calls from my colleagues in the pen profession, knowing that I was her media adviser, trying to confirm authenticity of the sad news.

 I had no choice I had to issue a press statement early enough to avoid speculations and wrong news dissemination. I must confess in my career as journalist of over three decades that was my first time I will be writing a press statement on a demise of any individual.

 I must again openly say this, late Iyalode Alaba Lawson, Iyalode of Yorubaland, I knew for over 30 years was my great benefactor and I will continue to appreciate her even in death. She was there for me all time, a reliable mother, a sister and aunty from another womb.

 I have no regret knowing her, if there is opportunity to keep relationship in heaven, I will keep that relationship with Alaba Oluwaseun Lawson (Omo Jiboku Tanatana). Its exactly a year today you left this sinful world to rest in the arms of the Lord. The legacies you left behind speak volume. I pray you continue to rest in perfect peace. Adieu

Prince Dimeji Kayode-Adedeji is founder of Penpushing Media and Media Adviser to late Iyalode of Yorubland, Iyalode Alaba Lawson

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